Manager, Load Forecasting

POSTING DEADLINE

This position is posted until filled.

DEPARTMENT

Department:   Strategic Marketing & Product Management

JOB DESCRIPTION

Manager Load Forecasting

Salary Grade: G04

Minimum  Midpoint  Maximum

$104,766 - $141,434 - $178,102

SUMMARY:  

Manages the preparation of load forecasts and the company's load research for the company.  Ensures forecasts are based on statistical analysis of historic trends, and incorporate price elasticity effects, technology changes, policy changes, and social trends to support the company's strategic and financial planning, pricing, budgeting, regulatory and resource planning activities.

ESSENTIAL DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES: 

Directs analysts to produce forecast peak use and energy use by customer class, as well as the design and management of the load research program(s), including sample design, data collection and analysis

Utilizes end-use forecasting and system forecasting methods

Maintain and evaluate load profile data for use in cost-of-service and rate design studies

Analyzes advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and smart meter data (when available) to enhance the understanding of customer usage patterns and trends

Prepares analyses of key factors affecting electric use, including the development of forecast and load shapes for energy efficiency, electric vehicles, dynamic pricing offerings and demand response among others

Makes recommendations for changes in revenue recovery based on foreseen changes 

Analyzes impact of price, weather, and technology on use per customer and load/peak forecast

Analyzes and documents leading and lagging economic statistics that impact energy use research and documentation and analyze historical trends and relevant variables and indicators to improve forecast accuracy

Directs analysts to provide the following variance analyses: year over year, forecast to previous forecast and actual to forecast 

Responsible for testifying before the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission as required 

Responsible for independently maintaining data, systems, and processes that produce forecasts that complies with the applicable regulatory standards and best practices

COMPETENCIES:  

Knowledge of econometric and statistical models

Basic knowledge of utility rate design and/or cost of service studies

Ability to implement and manage the company's load research program and load forecasting system

Ability to implement forward test period ratemaking

Ability to develop and leverage relationships with all stakeholders in a diverse and dynamic environment for positive business solutions 

Ability to persuade and to effectively promote ideas and proposals that shape key stakeholder opinions 

Ability to design and improve processes with strong attention to detail 

Ability to understand and anticipate customer needs and act in the long-term best interest of the customer 

QUALIFICATIONS                    

MINIMUM EDUCATION AND/OR EXPERIENCE:  

Bachelor's degree with a focus in either economics, statistics, mathematics, business economics or a related field with seven to nine years of related energy or utility industry experience. This includes at least two years of management experience, or equivalent combination of education and/or experience related to the discipline.

Master's Degree Preferred

SUPERVISORY RESPONSIBILITIES:

The manager will be responsible for supervising others.

COMMUNICATION SKILLS:      

             

Ability to present technical information to non-technical audiences 

Ability to communicate with peers, engineers, operations, and senior management

Ability to read, analyze, and interpret business periodicals, professional journals, financial reports, and legal documents 

Ability to write and effectively give persuasive speeches and presentations on controversial or complex topics to various audiences

Ability to effectively communicate to management, regulators, and stakeholders on highly complex matters and build consensus among diverse groups 

Ability to respond effectively to highly sensitive inquiries or complaints 

MATHEMATICAL SKILLS:    

Ability to work with the concepts of probability, statistical inference, financial analysis, regression, correlation and fundamentals of plain and solid geometry and trigonometry 

Ability to apply the concepts of fractions, percentages, ratios, and proportions to practical situations 

Ability to calculate figures and amounts such as discounts, interest, commissions, proportions, percentages, area, circumference, and volume

COMPUTER SKILLS:  

Advanced knowledge of word processing, spreadsheet, database, and presentation software

Working knowledge of forecasting software and statistical tools (e.g., SAS, R, Phyton, EViews or similar)

ANALYSIS AND PROBLEM-SOLVING ABILITY:  

Ability to accurately analyze information and make assessments of the impact on forecast

Ability to extrapolate from assumptions in order to make reasonable forecasts of future impacts  

SCOPE AND IMPACT:

PHYSICAL DEMANDS:

Ability to sit up to 2/3 of the time and to stand, walk, and stoop up to 1/3 of the time.  Good vision and ability to adjust focus is required.  Manual dexterity is required.  Must occasionally lift and/or move up to 10 pounds. 

WORK ENVIRONMENT: 

Primarily office environment.  Will occasionally spend time in the field meeting with customer groups, regulatory stakeholders, commission staff

SAFETY AND ADA STATEMENT

Safety Statement:

Safety is a core value at (TXNM Energy/PNM/TNMP) and our vision, "everyone goes home safe", reflects our commitment to promoting an environment conducive to learning, improving and building safety practices. Our safety value is built upon the belief that every employee deserves to work in an environment free from harm.

Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Statement: 

If you require assistance with the job application process due to a disability, please contact HR ADA Analyst, at 505-241-4627.